Russia is going to invade Israel.  Yes, as crazy as it sounds, it seems probable that this could occur within the next two to three years, most likely around 2011, Obama's third year in office.

So, why in the world would Russia invade Israel?  They have no oil, no energy resources to speak of.  Why would Russia risk the ire of the United States and the rest of the West by an unpopular military action in such an explosive region?

The simple answer: Prestige.

Russia, especially under Vladimir Putin, yearns to be recognized globally once more as a superpower.  The Russian people admire power and strong central government like no other nation on earth.  When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, the sadness evoked by their loss of face in the eyes of world eclipsed their joy in newly found freedom.

Putin and the Russian leadership are itching for an opportunity to demonstrate their authority to the world once more, an authority derived from might and force.  As the United States struggles through economic woes and other perceived international tangles, the tantalizing Russian fantasy of being the lone superpower seems within reach for the first time in history.

At some point in the next few years, Israel will assuredly do something to enrage the rest of the world.  This is not difficult for them to do considering the rest of the world, beside the US, the UK, and Australia, long ago chose sides with the Palestinians and Israel's enemies.  Perhaps Israel will finally get up the nerve to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, or maybe they will do something to the Palestinians which will inspire the wrath of its foes, including Russia.

At that time, Russia will stand up and say, "If the United States can form a coalition of nations for the purpose of punishing Iraq on two separate occasions, why should not Russia do the same when Israel has behaved in such and such a way."  Such an opportunity would allow Russia to exert its might, command respect once more as a superpower, and simultaneously thumb its nose at the United States.  Such a scenario would almost be irresistible to them.

In fact, the only thing preventing Putin from acting now is the threat of retaliation from the United States.  Yet, several factors are coalescing into a perfect storm, creating the right environment for Russia to move forward.   First, the United States appears to be waning economically.  Whether this economic downturn will become permanent or not is irrelevant.  The perceived economic weakness of the United States will be a sufficient green light for the Russian bear when combined with the second factor, an Obama presidency.

President-Elect Obama will resist using the military to protect Israel as much as President Bush was willing to use it.  Vladimir Putin knows this.  With Obama as president and the US in economic agony, Putin will feel, and rightfully so, that the US will do nothing more than protest should he attack Israel.  Thus, the threat of American retalitation is removed.

In addition, Russia's commercial and military ties to Muslim nations are growing stronger with each passing year.  Not only have they strengthened their economic ties to countries like Iran, Syria, and Egypt over the past two decades, but most recently they have begun arming these countries with missiles, fighter jets, and other military equipment.  If Israel is the enemy of all of Russia's friends, you can bet they will soon be Russia's enemy too.

What an opportunity for the red bear.  Reassert itself as a superpower, humble the United States, and please all of its business partners at the same time.  Why wouldn't they take it?

We are simply waiting for the "trigger", the event that Russia will paint as atrocious, serious enough to warrant military correction by the nations of the world.  In a few more years, the United States will have waned further, Russia's military force will be more formidible, and its ties to China and Muslim nations will be stronger.  Once that happens, a "trigger" won't be hard to come by.